The Thesis
When the 14-period RSI drops below 30, gold is deeply oversold — it's fallen too fast and is due for a bounce. Physical demand creates a floor that supports mean reversion.
The Strategy
Entry: Buy gold when RSI < 30
Exit: Sell when RSI > 70
Stop Loss: 8%
Results (2000–2026)
MetricValue
|--------|-------|
Total Return**+229%**
Win Rate**73%**
Average Win**+12.1%**
Average Loss**-5.8%**
Average Hold**18 days**
The Silver Variant
Silver RSI < 25 produces **+645% return** with 73% win rate. The deeper the oversold reading, the bigger the bounce.
Key Insight
RSI mean reversion works best on assets with fundamental support — commodities with physical demand, not speculative assets. The 8% stop protects against rare structural declines.